Market Recap

marketrecap

Pending Home Sales Climb 10.9%:

Pending Home Sales climbed 10.9% from this time last year according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Pending Home Sales are homes that have active sales contracts but have not yet closed.

On a month-over-month basis, sales pulled back -0.4 percent. This is actually positive news as the market was expected a drop of over 1.00% due to higher mortgage rates during this term. The fact that the housing market is able to absorb the slight uptick in mortgage rates is good news.

Based on year-to-date sales activity, and stable contract signings expected for the balance of the year, NAR projects existing-home sales to rise more than 8 percent in 2013. Inventory shortages will lead the median price to rise by nearly 11 percent this year.

 

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Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -49 basis points from last Friday’s close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher. This ended the bond rally that had lasted for the two weeks prior to last week.

As we have discussed, MBS sell off when there is positive economic news. We certainly could have sold off even more given last week’s data with Durable Goods Orders much stronger than expected (4.2 vs 0.5) and the Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 84.1 to 85.1. Existing Home Sales missed the market expectations but was still robust. New Home Sales enjoyed some nice gains in terms of unit sales and price increases.

Demand for our 7 year Treasury auction saw some decent demand but our 5 year and 2 year auctions saw decreased demand.

MBS would have lost more ground (even higher rates for you) if it weren’t for a WSJ article that speculated that the Fed would change their language at this week’s FOMC meeting to calm the markets that they would not be increasing their rates for a long time. We agree. They will certainly leave their Fed Funds rate alone but they will eventually have to start to pull back on bond purchases and those bond purchases are what impacts your mortgage rates…not their Fed Fund rate.

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